LIKSY METHODOLOGY · v1.1
Liksy publishes derived indicators on top of its 990K+ price database: the Food Inflation Index (ARII), Country Food-Risk Score, cross-country correlation, and supply-chain stress signals. We also surface official reference indices from third parties (Eurostat HICP, USDA AMS, FAOSTAT) alongside our own. This page documents the data pipeline, statistical choices, and known limitations.
The Liksy database integrates six source families. See /sources for full coverage tables, refresh cadences, and per-source documentation.
| Source | Type | Coverage | Cadence |
|---|---|---|---|
| WFP Price Database | Crisis monitoring | 12 countries, ~190K rows | Monthly |
| Eurostat HICP | Official EU index | 37 countries, ~123K rows, since 1996 | Monthly |
| USDA AMS | US wholesale & retail | US national + 8 regions, ~110K rows | Weekly |
| FAOSTAT CP | Consumer price indices | 180+ countries, ~190K rows | Monthly/yearly |
| WB Pink Sheet | Commodity prices | Global, ~30K rows, since 1960 | Monthly |
| Liksy collectors + Open Prices | Crowdsourced | Pilot, growing | Real-time |
Every record is tagged with a data_source field for provenance. Methodology choices below apply to Liksy-derived indices (ARII, Risk Score). Reference indices from Eurostat, USDA, and FAOSTAT pass through unchanged with attribution.
A monthly, country-specific index of food basket cost denominated in USD, normalized to a baseline of 100. ARII is Liksy's own computation; for EU countries, the official Eurostat HICP food index (CP011) is also returned in the same response under reference.eurostat_hicp.
Each country has a basket defined by subcategory weights, mirroring the WFP Minimum Food Basket framework. Default global weights:
Country-specific overrides exist for all 12 WFP-covered countries. For example, Ethiopia weights cereals heavier (0.45) due to higher grain consumption share, while Lebanon weights dairy higher (0.15) reflecting Mediterranean diet patterns.
Raw WFP records mix units (KG, "90 KG" sacks, L, "12 PCS"...). Liksy parses the unit field and computes a kg/L-normalized price_per_unit for every applicable row. Inflation index calculation uses only kg/L-normalized records, ensuring apples-to-apples comparison across collection events.
Within each subcategory and time window, prices outside the 5th–95th percentile range are excluded. This trims data-entry errors and exceptional one-off transactions while preserving genuine price signals. Confidence threshold: >= 0.75.
The division by effective_weight is critical: it normalizes across periods where some subcategories may be missing, preventing apples-to-oranges comparison.
Default baseline: January 2020 (BIS/IMF convention, pre-COVID benchmark). For subcategories with no January 2020 data, a fallback baseline is used: the earliest 6-month window with valid measurements for that country/subcategory pair.
A country-month index is computed only when the subcategories with measurable prices represent at least 40% of basket weight. Below this threshold the index is suppressed (null), since a basket dominated by 1–2 components is not representative.
Where official statistics agencies publish food price indices, Liksy returns them alongside ARII for benchmarking. These pass through unchanged with full attribution.
For 37 countries (EU27 + EFTA + EU candidates including Türkiye), the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, Food (CP011) is included in /api/v1/inflation responses under reference.eurostat_hicp. Base period 2015 = 100, monthly cadence, history back to 1996. We return YoY % change computed from a 12-month lookback.
Weekly grocery feature activity (Beef, Lamb, Veal, Goat, Specialty Crops) for US national + 8 regions are stored as price observations in price_data with data_source = 'usda_ams'. Each row carries price_min/avg/max and store_count. Available via /api/v1/prices?data_source=usda_ams.
FAO Consumer Price Indices for ~180 countries, monthly and yearly granularity, in external_indices with data_source = 'faostat_cp'. Used as fallback inflation reference for non-EU countries.
A composite 0–100 indicator with S&P-style letter grade, designed for trade credit insurance, sovereign macro analysis, and EM hedge fund overlays. Computed on demand per country.
| Component | Weight | Definition |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation volatility | 40% | Coefficient of variation of monthly index over rolling 24-month window |
| Absolute inflation | 30% | Average distance of index from baseline (100), capped |
| Anomaly density | 20% | Count of > 25% price deviations vs 30-day baseline in last 90 days |
| Data freshness | 10% | Days since latest inflation data point, scaled to 0–100 |
| Score | Grade | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| < 10 | AAA | Stable, low food-driven risk |
| 10–19 | AA | Very low risk |
| 20–29 | A | Low risk, mild pressure |
| 30–44 | BBB | Moderate, monitor |
| 45–59 | BB | Elevated risk |
| 60–74 | B | High risk |
| 75–89 | CCC | Severe risk, expect disruption |
| ≥ 90 | D | Crisis-level price instability |
| — | NR | Insufficient recent data (< 6 months in 24-month window) |
Risk score uses a 24-month rolling window to maximize country coverage while remaining responsive. Sigortacılar typically operate on 1–2 year horizons; this window aligns. Countries with no data in the window receive NR.
Methodology questions, dataset access, partnership inquiries: emir@delmundo.hu